Ignoring Luck

"If chance will have me king, why, chance may crown me, 

without my stir." - Macbeth

Lady Luck is a funny thing.

Numbers are typically embraced for their certainty, for the patterns and predictability that they represent. Yet in fantasy, the numbers come and rarely are they free of some underlying twist - a bad coaching decision, the weather, a surprise backup performance. In fantasy, the numbers exist, but they almost always come with an explanation.

This got me thinking...

Four weeks into any Mantasy campaign, the records are forming. A 1-3 start has an owner pressing and a 3-1 start has an owner breathing a bit easier. Although many regular season weeks remain, it is possible that a good team is in an early bind because of good old-fashioned Lady Luck. This next chart will attempt to show what happens without luck involved. Obviously this is not a perfect science, but let us look at The Mantasy League and its teams records if each team in the league played each other team every week. This will obviously favor the teams that have the highest scores each week, but isn't that the point? Once again, I'm thinking before collecting data, so it will be interesting what comes up.

If Every Team Played:

OVERALL, Uber Head to Head *Actual Record in parenthesis                                                      

1. The Grundles- 25-11   (2-2)

2. The Ghostface Spiller- 23-13   (3-1)

3. Chris Henry's X-treme Parkour- 21-14-1   (2-2)

4. Do Your Balls Dangle Low?- 21-15   (2-2)

5. Bush...Bowe-ner- 20-16   (1-3)

6. Debbie Does Dallas Clark- 19-17   (2-2)

7. Gym, Tan, Smoosh- 18-18   (3-1)

8. Milk Steak and Jelly Beans- 13-21-2   (2-2)

9. That's Gold, Jerry! Gold!!!- 9-26-1   (2-2)

10. Maurice Jones-Jew- 9-27   (1-3)

But is this enough? How about if we ranked rotisserie-style, just by points scored?

OVERALL, Points Scored

1. Debbie Does Dallas Clark- 443

2. The Ghostface Spiller- 414

3. The Grundles- 410

4. Gym, Tan, Smoosh- 393

5. Do Your Balls Dangle Low?- 389

6. Chris Henry's X-treme Parkour- 381

7. Bush...Bowe-ner- 378

8. Milk Steak and Jelly Beans- 335

9. Maurice Jones-Jew- 326

10. That's Gold, Jerry! Gold!!!- 325

So do the true power rankings fall somewhere between these two? Sure, points scored is a good gauge of power, but imagine that a team scored 200 points one week - that team would be a flash in the pan, so to speak. The head to head records are good because they reward relative power on a weekly basis. 

Lion-o: Power incarnate.

Luck Index (10 = Blow my dice, 5 = There is no such thing as luck, 1 = Don't sit at my table)

The bolded number indicates a team's fortune or misfortune, based the above to ranking systems and the team's actual standing. 

3-1 The Ghostface Spiller  5

3-1 Gym, Tan, Smoosh  7

2-2 The Grundles 3

2-2 Debbie Does Dallas Clark 5

2-2 Do Your Balls Dangle Low 4

2-2 Chris Henry's X-treme Parkour 4

2-2 Milk Steak and Jelly Beans 7

2-2 That's Gold, Jerry! Gold!!! 9

1-3 Bush Bowe-ner 3

1-3 Maurice Jones-Jew 5

MANTASY LEAGUE ACTUAL STANDINGS AND SCORING

Obviously, these numbers are pretty arbitrary, but I think there is something to them. As in real life, teams must play the games and the records don't care about justice and who deserves what, but it is fun to look at who has caught breaks and who has been unlucky as a way to imagine the eventual playoff picture. I'm sure people will have some feelings on these numbers. Feelings are good, let's hear them.

Kiss.