Thursday, September 30, 2010

Mike Vick is a Ferrari

I spend way too much time thinking about football. I freely and proudly admit this, but I sometimes worry - not so much because it is bad to obsess, but because this particular obsession turns my moral satchel inside out.

It all starts with Mike Vick.


He's in my head.
The complete portrait of my Obsession includes nudity, graphic private parts, and a generally ignorance of form and technique. Manifest, my obsession is a semi-disgusting, but very relatable naked man on a chaise longue, complete with glistening pouches of skin and a toothy smile. He is holding a loaded Beretta and just ate the butt of a recently smoked menthol Newport. He wants to die, and he's enjoying living out his days doing so. But make no mistake, my Obsession is happy as hell and this greatly relates to owning a fantasy stud like Mr. Michael Dwayne Vick.

The Obsession is a wonderfully ugly sum of its parts and all of the parts are important. Think of it as a four course tasting menu with each course acting as a prelude to the next, steadily forming a frenzied, practically debilitating whirlwind of facts, memories, analysis, and hypothetical situations. Naturally, the first course is the New York Football Giants.

First course.
The first course is very important to any meal, just as are the New York Giants are very important to me. The amuse-bouche of the Obsession, The Giants can stand alone because I love their flavor. I've seen this in others who suffer the Obsession, the team is subjective - Patriots fans love the flavor of Pat, Steelers fans love the flavor of Iron Curtain, Titans fans love the flavor of Vince Young's sweaty chest, and so on. My experiences with the Giants, although they often occur in crowded bars or on friend's couches, are ultimately private ones. I have a relationship to Eli Manning and the anemic play-calling and I don't want it any other way. It is like eating a chilled soup: I'm always uneasy about how it will taste, but when it is made well, it is refreshing and tasty and cleanses my palate from the next course.

Football culture can be good....
The second course is like a bold appetizer that leaves me wanting more - The Culture. While my relationship to my favorite team is a personal one, that does not mean that I want to stay at home and watch all by myself. The Culture is where you take your sadistic hobby of rooting for a favorite team and you attempt to introduce it to a mating partner. This takes many forms, including excessive gabbing to strangers, yelling at T.V.s with friends, cursing at rival players and fans, and a general regression of the evolutionary progress. Think of the The Culture as a necessary environment to sow your private love seeds and cultivate the next course, The Mantasy.

...but sometimes it can be overwhelming.
I ask the question repeatedly on this blog: What is Mantasy? If I aggressively attempted to define and give rigid contours to a Mantasy, I would be a fraud. This is a Socratic blog, for the most part, and occasionally I hide behind questions and say things like, "This is a Socratic blog, for the most part," but I only do this because the complexity of Mantasy blows my mind, the way the entree course at a Michelin Star restaurant should blow any food lover's mind. I cannot fully deconstruct what I'm experiencing, it just feels really good. I do know, however, that the Mantasy is like the Navi connection to nature - both personal and universal. For me, it is the end result of mixing my general football enthusiasm with the personal investment of fantasy football.

"I see you, Jake Scully.
Now stop checking your injury news and come to bed."

The final course, dessert, is the speculation - the predictions, the digesting of statistics, play calling, politics, injuries, match ups, and all of that. It is too much sometimes, but it must be embraced and worked through. It can keep you up at night and make your body hurt; it can mess with your life. Yet, it is the fun part, the part that is most controllable and no real fan would kick it out of bed.

And this brings me back to Mike Vick. Once all four courses are completed and the bill is paid, things are different, there is no going back. You tasted the fruit and now you are stuck with this Obsession. But be forewarned: The Obsession makes your mind crazy. Take my situation, for example - I cannot stop thinking about Mike Vick. Once upon a time, I drafted him and hoped for the best, but it was only so so. Then he got busted fighting dogs and I was happy to see him leave both the real and fantasy realms of football as he was unable to mess with my Giants or my Mantasy. 

Not sexier than Vick, just different.


But now he is back, and I am struggling with my newfound interest in the controversial quarterback. Is he a criminal? I don't know about that, but he doesn't treat dogs properly and I love dogs. Even if I only had luke warm feelings for dogs, there is something truly sickening about dog fighting. My parents' golden retriever, Moose, fights a lot. He thinks he's a tough guy and often picks fights with boxers and other dogs that would destroy him. The thought of there being no owners to prevent Moose from being shredded apart is scary and upsetting to me, and I certainly cannot empathize with a person who does not see that intentionally having dogs attack one another is cruel and morally twisted. Still, he hasn't thrown an interception. In fact, he is a stud...

The visors + the sleeves + the lefty cannon = Mantasy Love
...He throws well, he moves well, he runs well, he plays smart football, and nobody looks better in a football uniform. The dude is a damn Ferrari. He is a stealth bomber in a World War I movie; he is the invention of lying; he designed Tom Brady's chin; he craps truffles; he is an undiscovered color; he is Pi; he makes David Blaine disappear; he is a Philadelphia Eagle...and my buddy, Brendan, owns him in our fantasy football league. I don't care if the man is criminal - I sort of like that he is crazy - and I certainly don't think about morals when considering my starting fantasy lineup. I'm jealous and I'm losing sleep over this, but I cannot properly tell you what this is...

Unless this is it...my Mantasy...

Until Vick pulls up lame with a hamstring pull or throws three interceptions, but by then, Ahmad Bradshaw should be leading the league in rushing.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Girl, You Looks Good, Won't You Back That Ass Up?

A picture of Juvenile in handcuffs will make
more sense after you read the article.

Out of all of the fantasy sports, fantasy football is likely the most unique. Most apparently, the schedule - even if it goes to 18 games - is so much shorter that the implications of each dosing of games are amplified. As a result of this, the rosters of fantasy football teams are also very unique. Many leagues are different, but in The Mantasy League there are nine active (or "starting") spots each week and seven inactive (or "bench") spots. Compare this to fantasy baseball, in which many leagues have as few as three bench spots and it is easy to see why football has many interesting management strategies. My personal favorite - at least as a point of discussion - is the phenomenon known as "hand-cuffing", a strategy of owning players that are usually worthless at the time of pick-up or at the draft, but have upside should a player higher on the depth chart struggle or get injured.

Handcuffs can be fuzzy.
The Mantasy League's waiver order does not change on a week to week basis based on performance. Instead, owners manage their waiver spot with great care (hopefully) and put much thought into moves that will drop them in the order.  Inevitably, this alters how owners pick players up and, to some extent, what players they own. To elaborate, an owner with a top pick is unlikely to use it on a handcuff or player with potential value, whereas the owners at the bottom will throw claims in on just about anyone. The bottom line is that The Mantasy League is unique, as any league with some adjusted rules is, and assessing the value of players is hard to do in a universal way. That will not, however, stop me from trying, and in this case, I will take a look at the players in our league (and perhaps yours) that score almost no points, but have fantasy homes. I've tried to keep the list to the remotely relevant.

In Bondage
These players are either too good to be back ups or they are in unfortunate roles. Nonetheless, they are the best handcuffs out there because we have seen their resumes.

Willis McGahee - This guy could be so cool if that Ray Rice contusion was serious. Alas, 18 yards and a TD is par.
Jonathan Stewart - I'm getting tired of writing about this guy, but he is so damn interesting. 
Jerome Harrison - Poor guy. His profile pic just looks so much better than Peyton Hillis'. What does he have to do?
Shonn Greene - Yeah, I can't believe it, either. He's a backup. For now.
Brandon Jacobs - How far he has fallen. Personally, I don't think he's good if he gets all the carries. What happened?
Fred Jackson - I wouldn't surprised is F.J. was never heard from again. Ever. But he could be good with touches.
Ricky Williams - Age? Weed Smoke? You pick. Still, an injury to R.Brown and this guy is getting your team lifted.
Felix Jones, or is it Marion Barber? - How neither of these guys is valuable is beyond me.
Michael Bush - Run-DMC relegated this guy to J.V. He might not be dead, but while DMC is alive, Bush is a handcuff.


Note: I have tried not to include players like Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones because they are in a true split and both have value. Similarly, I am ignoring the Green Bay situation because I cannot make sense of who is starting, nor do I think it matters; they love passing.


You'se a fine mother f'er, won't you...


Back That Ass Up
These are true backups. Fear of losing a high round pick is usually why an owner has one of these guys, but some owners just like to wish injuries upon other people's players. Many of these names are just that, only names.

Rashard Jennings - As backups go, he is not so appealing to me. The Jags look bad and this guy is no MJD.
Bernard Scott - Similar to Jennings, it isn't clear how good he'd be. Still, if he had 20+ attempts...
Jevon Ringer - The heir apparent. Nobody is The Prawn, but The Titans are wed to running.
Keilland Williams - "Boogley-shoop-di-boop." That is about all that this guy means to me.
Ryan Torain - Ah, now this is a Redskins backup I'd look at. Good when healthy, which is typical for a Shanahan guy.
Jason Snelling - I picture him bashing people and grunting, "Snell! Snell!" Seriously, check out his physique:
Monster catch ball! Monster crush! Snell! Snell!
Love this dude.
Lawrence Maroney - I once tried dating Larry Maroney and it backfired. I own him again in hope that this is the year.
Donald Brown - Look, if the Colts ran more, he'd be good, no doubt. At least Addai is always  banged up.
Mike Tolbert - Not sexy, but if he had all the carries, he would be valuable. Which brings me to...
Darren Sproles - Felix...ahem...Sproles will always be a risky play. Does he hit one or get 13 yards? IDK.
Steve Slaton - From first round pick to this in a year. There are a lot of people who would love to see this guy dead.
C.J. Spiller - Is he a handcuff? Sort of. He's more like an embryonic handcuff - he'll be done cooking later.
Kenneth Darby - Suddenly relevant, Darby filled in well last week. He is the fantasy equivalent of stale vomit.
Isaac Redman - Steeler fans love him, which is a good sign. If Mendy broke, this guy would be gold...black and gold.
Mike Goodson - Mantasy-mentioned already, Goodson is good, son. It would take an airplane crash, but he's classy.



Worship Me, Slave
These guys are fantasy crap and should suck stiletto.

Correll Buckhalter - 32 and never great. If the job was his, fine, but it looks like teams will do anything not to start him.
Leon Wahington - He'd be up a tier if Pete Carroll played fantasy football.
Julius Jones - He'd be buried in an empty lot somewhere if Pete Carroll played fantasy football.
Michael Robinson - Only because he is buried. He could be a good one if he ever had the chance to have the chance.
Maurice Morris - Perennial handcuff and perennially useless. I'd rather have Kevin Smith and he is crippled.




As always, I may have forgotten some good ones. Either post a comment or e-mail (for anonymity) - MantasyMan@gmail.com

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

It Sounded Like Two Guys Having Sex: Volume 3

Milk Steak and Jelly Beans vs. Do Your Balls Dangle Low?

The Week 4 lineups are not yet finalized for these two teams, but their teams have some interesting connections and you can bet all the money in your bank account that I am about to detail them here, in the latest edition of It Sounded Like Two Guys Having Sex.

The main points of interest in this matchup center around a high volume of players on two teams - The Panthers of Carolina and The Cardinals of Arizona.

As recently as three days ago, I was higher on Jonathan Stewart than Randy Moss driving to get pizza. Before week 1, I was higher on Jonathan Stewart than Ricky Willams at a planetarium laser show set to classic rock. Nowadays, I just don't know. People swore up and down that there would be enough bounty for both Panther running backs to get rich, but then it turned out that they are the NFL equivalent of the jay walking law. I'm not even sure what that means, but if you went to a small liberal arts college in New England, then I know you've been trained in the art of connecting such things. The point is that against the Saints, Jonathan Stewart just is not a good start. Sure, if he puts a touchdown in, he's okay, but if not, we could be looking at some real flaccidity from a key position as the Panthers play catch-up all day and dump the ball to Mike Goodson.

"Boom pow! I love Jonathan Stewart! Now gimme some pizza..."


So Stewart may not be in the Jelly Beans lineup, but should DeAngelo Williams be in the Dangle lineup? Hell yeah. He is one of those backs I'm not sitting at all - talented and well-fed. He certainly isn't in line for a career day, but guys like Williams can always go off. Now, if Stewart sits, why discuss the fact that these two teams have the Panther running back tandem?

I'm going to tell you, of course.
He's also stiffing DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart owners.

After a brief examination of the Milk Steak and Jelly Beans, there is no doubt that Mendenhall and McFadden start, and now assuming that Stewart sits, Beanie Wells gets his first nod of the year. Wells looked good last week and should have an even greater role in the upcoming game against San Diego. Clearly, Rick has noticed this trend and sent Officer Hightower back to a reserve role, but even a Beanie Wells start develops ties between the two owners. Suddenly, the Arizona situation in real life will tip carries or receptions for Sabo's Wells or Rick's Larry Fitzgerald. Sure, they will both get touches, but if San Diego comes out angry and crushes Arizona early, here's saying that Fitz will pop harder than a sebaceous cyst.

The final tie lies in the Houston/Oakland game and Matty Schaub against Darren McFadden. Seeing as Run-DMC is a part of the passing game, I doubt that even an early Houston lead will render the former collegiate star obsolete, but it would reduce Schaub's production, as they would likely be happy to lean on the run. Either way, I admit that this is a fleeting issue - and one that is far less interesting than the chain of Carolina and Arizona associations - but it feels like these types of opposing relationships between teams arise every week.

Regardless, this is a juicy week for the two sides. Sabo is hungry to be at 2-2 and who wouldn't be ecstatic starting off 3-1, as Rick very well might. Things are tight in The Mantasy League and all of these details end up factoring into the eventual playoff picture. Here, take a look:




DIVISION 1
TEAMWLTPCTGB
Debbie Does Dallas Clark210.667--
Gym, Tan, Smoosh210.667--
Do Your Balls Dangle Low?210.667--
The Ghostface Spiller210.667--
Chris Henry's X-Treme Parkour210.667--
That's gold, Jerry! Gold!!!210.667--
The Grundles120.3331
Milk Steak and Jelly Beans120.3331
Maurice Jones-Jew120.3331
Bush...Bowe-ner ? Um..hopefully030.0002


Ninth place is a game out. This is already interesting.

Monday, September 27, 2010

The Captains of Our Ships

Home from a nice dinner with my parents, the girlfriend asleep, and the Monday Night Game on TV. Thirteen or so minutes until another week finishes up and I find myself obsessively tracking the unsettled match ups of Week 3. Sabo still has a shot at Judd after the Hester TD puts his Packer duo of Jennings and Rodgers back on the field and Bart is holding on to a sturdy but not decisive lead over Pete. The Mantasy is alive and healthy.

A pickled Mantasy.

There is something about Tuesday that is refreshing, win or lose. The rankings reset, the standings update, and your team gets to breathe and prepare. The hoping is over and the preparation begins. Eight game minutes left now - Rodgers just got lit up. It is a late hit and his calf is cramping. He defines Mantasy - likable, consistent, durable, and fun to watch. He has me thinking about these types of players. When it come to the allure of fantasy football, owners love the power chips - the guys that lead the week and put up the big points. There are so many good players, but there a few that lead us to victory. They are our captains, and I thought it might be interesting to catalogue them thus far.

Here is a chart of each owner's top scorer with the week's result underneath. I will attempt to point out correlations, but I admit to doing this for fun without a real sense of whether there is anything useful to be gained from the collection of this data.


                                         CAPTAIN CHART                                

                              WEEK 1                              WEEK 2                            WEEK 3

PETE                   J. Cutler (22)                       J. Best (43)                          F. Gore (16)
                                       W                                        W                                        L
BRENDAN      M. Austin (24)                     L. McCoy (30)                    P. Rivers (26)
                                       W                                        W                                        L
SABO             R. Mendenhall (20)                A. Rodgers (26)                   A. Rodgers (23)
                                       L                                         W                                         L
FULLER           A. Boldin (13)                    A. Johnson (25)                   A. Boldin (34)
                                       L                                          L                                         L
TIM                  C. Johnson (27)                    T. Romo (16)                     C. Johnson (24)
                                      W                                          L                                        W
RICK              C. Ochocinco (25)                M. Schaub (30)                   A. Peterson (34)
                                       L                                         W                                        W
DREW            P. Manning (30)                   P. Manning (23)                  P. Manning (25)
                                      L                                           L                                        W
BART              T. Brady (22)                      K. Moreno (17)                      P. Hillis (25)
                                      L                                          W                                        W
JUDD              A. Foster (41)                       D. Brees (18)                       D. Brees (25)
                                     W                                          L                                         W
CHANDLER     P. Thomas (14)                  Chargers D/ST (18)               B. Marshall (26)
                                     W                                          L                                         L


There are 30 "Captain" tags so far, which is obvious.

*Of those 30...

...12 are QBs, with only 2 teams never having a QB be a captain. No team has had two different QB captains. P.Manning was captain all three weeks. D. Brees and A. Rodgers had the honor twice.

...11 are RBs, with only C. Johnson being a double captain.

...6 are WRs, with only A. Boldin doubling up once.

...7 went to a player taken in the first round.

...1 was un-drafted.

...1 was a defense.

*Only 2 players scored fewer than 20 points (P.Thomas and K.Moreno) and still captained a winning effort.

*Only two players scored more than 40 points (A.Foster and J.Best) and both teams won that week.

*Teams have a 2-5 record when their captain has fewer than 20 points.

*Teams are 5-2 when their captain has 30 or more points.

*Teams are 5-7 when their captain is a QB.

*Teams are 9-2 when their captain is a RB.

*Teams are 1-5 when their captain is a WR.

*The two teams that have never had a QB be captain are a combined 1-5.

Some quick theories and conclusions:


-It may seem obvious, but these stats confirm that although it is nice to have an elite QB, their high scores will rarely overcome the opposition.

-On the other hand, not having a dominant QB may be a huge detriment. Put another way, the teams that ever had a QB captain, likely got solid production out of that position on non-captainship weeks, whereas the teams that have never showed strength at QB may be losing valuable points there. (This is a very typical correlation and is a simple supposition.)

-RBs still rule the roost, even with the NFL becoming a passing league. A big day from a RB is a real difference maker.

-For some reason, WRs don't captain teams to victories. I'm not sure what to make of this and I think it is due to a small sample size, but it is unclear to me why this should be the case since only one of those WR captain scores was low (Boldin's 13) and the rest were 24 or greater.

-The over 30 point win/loss breakdown is interesting. Having one guy go off appears to corollate strongly with victory. To boot, those 2 losses (to 5 wins) when a player had 30 or more points came from a QB and a WR, and only 1 of the 30+ scoring winners was a non-RB. In other words, having a RB score 30 or more points has always (only 4 times, to be fair) lead to a team winning, where as teams are 1-2 when any other position achieves that high total.

Huh?!?

My head hurts from this not making sense or being useful, but still being so damn interesting. I want to give a shout out to my favorite fantasy scientist, Andy Washkowitz, who could, no doubt, do better at making sense of this (quite limited) data. I tried.


Sunday, September 26, 2010

The Weak in Review

After a dramatic week of bureaucratic bumper cars, the third installment of our collective Mantasy is nearing completion. The weekend saw the crowning of a new order of law that, after nine hundred scathing e-mails and a similar number of contradictory text messages, landed us at the sophisticated conclusion that trades require the designated amount of time to process and cannot be "pushed through" by the commissioner. We also learned that Andre Johnson and his gimpy ankle are worth more than a prawn hand to a Nigerian warlord in District 9.

He wants your prawn arm and is willing to fork over dozens of cans of cat food,
but he will have to wait two days for the trade to process. Same for the alien weaponry.
Alas, we have learned a lesson, and what is fantasy football about if not teaching us lessons by which to live and love. The lesson, much like the value of NFL players and their future statistical output, is subjective, so I will share with you the lesson that I learned: In a world that is dominated by the unpredictable and the uncontrollable, it is best to clearly define that which you can make sense of at all. In this particular case, our trade policy is one of those controllable things and we have irresponsibly let it be vague for too long. Rest easy now, my manpanions, we have, and will continue to, perfect the art of the Mantasy.

But enough dribble-drabble, let us talk manscape. As it is Sunday night, I do not want to falsely proclaim winners, so I will keep this to what we learned about the stocks and not the market.

Diversification is key, especially when it comes to bonds.


Strong portfolio players:

Mike Vick - I just love calling this guy Mike, as if I know him, yet I firmly believe that we would never truly be friends, no matter how much time we spent getting to know one another. The distance between us begins with him torturing the Giants in the past as a Falcon, moves to him looking to torture the Giants as an Eagle, and ends with him having tortured dogs. Still, I fear that there is one more wrinkle: he is a fantasy stud and I don't own him. Despite a history of being more drawn to this guy's scrambling ability than a baby boomer to erection medicine, I somehow don't have him on my team. His running ability is insane and there will be weeks that he produces like a solid RB on top of his passing yards, but his pocket presence looks sophisticated at this point and he is stick of fantasy dynamite. Gym, Tan, Smoosh now has a QB controversy between Vick and the mercurial, but ridiculously productive, Philip Rivers. This weekly decision should be fun to follow.

This is the kind of attitude that wins Mantasy titles.

Anquan Boldin - Dude went off. He went off harder than a baby boomer in a Chinatown brothel with a pocket full of erection medicine. Flacco to AB was not really an issue, but there were growing concerns about the Ravens' revamped passing game and those concerns inevitably clouded Boldin's value. Three touchdowns later, it looks he's is a total stud. Call him Creepy Quan - cause he loves damaging touches like a weird uncle.

"Oh, hey Creepy Quan. Did you bring the touches?"
Just pray that he knows what you mean.

Peyton Hillis - There is a lot of room for racism in this upcoming paragraph, but I will try not to go there.  Hillis was born to Doug and Carrie Hillis on January 21, 1986 and raised in Conway, Arkansas. He played football for Conway High School from 1999–2003, where he played primarily as a fullback. He ran for many, many yards and many, many touchdowns. He later went to the University of Arkansas, where he blocked for Felix Jones and Darren McFadden. He played fullback, halfback, tight end, wide receiver, and returned both punts and kicks.* He is also white. Is that racist? No, it's a fact. My disbelief over his incredible performance against the Ravens is racist because the guy has a terrific track record and my hesitations about him stem solely from his ESPN profile pic. Bart has something going here and this guy could be a fun twist in this fantasy season.


Peyton Hillis. He salutes you, Affirmative Action.




Other growing portfolios:
Jeremy Maclin
Kyle Orton
Mike Wallace
LaDanian Tomlinson
Dustin Keller
Brandon Lloyd
Roy Williams
Austin Collie
Every Broncos receiver
Benjarvis Ellis-Green
Malcolm Floyd
Santana Moss


Weak Portfolio Players:


Jonathan Stewart - Sure, he scored, but the Panthers are hot garbage on the side of a busy avenue. Stewart also fumbled and DeAngelo Williams continues to start and be the horse. One of these weeks Stewie gets going, but it will be tough without an injury or a sudden Carolina resurrection. 


Stewie is a spectator for now.


Tim Hightower - Hightower is likely to have some value from here on out, but Beanie Wells returned this week and looked pretty good. If he doesn't have any other super secret injuries or surgeries, Beanie's role should grow and that means nothing good for Officer Hightower. 


Just a great Hightower picture.


Shonn Greene - He just isn't the starter. He isn't the third down back, either. He isn't even the goal line back. At best, he will be the late season/playoff back, but that will not help you and your fantasy dreams if your team doesn't win now. He is a frustrating early pick and there is nothing to do but hold him close, stroke him, and tell him everything is going to be alright. The same treatment can be applied to anyone who drafted Greene.


Being hurt does not help one's Mantasy:
Jahvid Best - toe
Andre Johnson - ankle
Steven Jackson - groin




*Wikipedia is a beast of a resource.