Just a little follow-up on what I have come to term “The Hard Knocks Running Back Trap”. As any good football fan with HBO knows, Hard Knocks is a reality sports documentary series that annually follows an NFL team through the rigors of training camp and pre-season. Most great reality shows draw their fan base and intrigue from either drama (Real World, Keeping up with the Kardashians, Real House Wives of Where Ever) or competition (Top Chef, Survivor, Project Runway). Hard Knocks is especially gripping because it combines both.
While the entertainment value of the show can’t be denied, the question from my Mantasy perspective is whether the producers of Hard Knocks successfully cloud our drafting judgment with clever editing and development of story lines.
Let’s take a look at the last three years of HK to see if there is any validity to my theory (Note that HK first aired in 2001 when it followed the Ravens and 2002 when it followed the Cowboys before taking a 5-year hiatus and returning in 2007 to follow the Chiefs).
2007 Chiefs
Remember that guy who had 2169, 2287, and 2110 total rushing and receiving yards in the 2001, 2002, and 2003 football seasons – not to mention 10, 24 and 27 touchdowns in those same years. The same guy who scored 15 touchdowns in half a season in 2004 before suffering a season ending injury. If you haven’t guessed Priest Holmes yet, stop reading this post, go to your team page, click team settings and change your team name to ‘Bielak’s schlong’ (actually not a bad team name now that I read it out loud).
After taking a brutal hit from Shawne Merriman-Tequila in 2005 and injuring his spinal column, it looked like Holmes’ hall of fame career was over. What’s worse from a fantasy value perspective, Holmes’ starting role was given to this guy after his injury.
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| District 9 was very high on this guy last year... And this year he loves L.T. Hard Knock Trap sucka. |
I was completely ready to move on with my Mantasy career with only the glorious memories of 2000 yard, 20 TD Priestly seasons, BUT there he was in 2006 … in my house … on my TV … running sprints and doing drills with trainers … and saying all the right things about being ready to sleigh bitches in 06. This got me thinking to myself, “Hey self, I know this Larry Johnson guy is around, but we’re talking about the best running back in the league not but 2 years ago, we’re talking about a prolific running offense with Professor Roaf manning the left side of the best offensive line in the league … I think these guys could co-exist and Priest could represent a nice little value pick. And maybe the guy who Vermiel accused of wearing diapers can’t make it through a full season, and Priest goes back to being THE GUY. Maybe, Maybe…”. Maybe a huge waste of a mid round draft pick. Holmes never even suited up in 2006.
Now there are clear similarities to the LT situation in New Jersey this year - former # 1 fantasy running back coming off a couple of injury ravaged down seasons - A stud, young running back blocking his path to assured touches. Of course the differences are also instructive. LT doesn’t have a spinal injury, he’s joining a team with a better offensive line than the team he’s leaving, and he’s actually been playing well in preseason games and not just working out with trainers.
The two story lines developed by the Hard Knocks producers however are exactly the same. It’s a comeback story, a story of redemption and return to greatness. Hopefully LT’s story will turn out better than Priest’s, but that doesn’t change the fact that our perception of the situation can be clouded by watching the HK reality show. Anyone see Shonne Greene once during the show? Me neither. Was he there, running with the first team everyday? I think he probably was, but it was like Where's Waldo to find him during the show.
2008 Cowboys
How much did Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips brag about their first round pick, Felix Jones, during the 2008 Hard Knocks? Too fucking much, that’s how much, and I fell for it hook line and sinker. “Yeah Jer, I’m watching him in 7 on 7 training camp scrimmages and you’re right, he does have an extra burst.” Thanks for the 266 yards and 3 TDs, Felix.
2009 Bengals
We’ve got another Shonne Greene situation here. “Where the hell was Cedric Benson? Is he still on the team? Why aren’t they showing him? Was he arrested again? Who is this Bernard Scott guy? He’s fucking strong and virile. Cedric was good at the end of last year, but ...” God damn Hard Knocks Running Back Trap at work here.
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| Hard Knocks played to our weaknesses - this is a hard face to trust. |
Hard Knocks is a reality show, ladies and gents. Guys getting cut is interesting; hot shot rookies are interesting; sexy quarterbacks and their girlfriends are interesting; Diva wide receivers are interesting. But perhaps more than all else redemption stories like L.T. & Priest Holmes seem to have a special place in the hearts of sports fan. Josh Hamilton, virtually every other olympic story, Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods, and the list goes on - we love our comebacks - athletes beating time...the impossible. In the case of football, rock solid, power running backs like Cedric Benson, Marion Barber, and Shonne Greene may not be interesting enough for the average fan, and certainly not for the Hard Knocks producers, but they are certainly interesting come draft day, and it is this guy's belief that they are time-proven, unsexy ways to put some sexy Mantasy Hardware on your mantle.
Submitted by Mantasy League member, Maurice Jones-Jew
The Mantasy Scope:
As you can see, there are two schools of thought here on the Jets backfield and fantasy drafts are buzzing over the debate. The really interesting thing is that there is likely room for both backs to succeed. As such, a good strategy might be to grab both, not only because there is a chance that both can be started - similar to a Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams situation, but because they actually serve as handcuffs. With Revis back on board, the running back that would be left over if either missed time would seem set to get a boat load of carries and have a giant basket of fantasy fruit to dole out.
In the Mantasy League, M.J. Jew and District 9 will be following the Hard Knocks Trap closely. Our boy Chandler might really be onto something here.
Submitted by Mantasy League member, Maurice Jones-Jew
The Mantasy Scope:
As you can see, there are two schools of thought here on the Jets backfield and fantasy drafts are buzzing over the debate. The really interesting thing is that there is likely room for both backs to succeed. As such, a good strategy might be to grab both, not only because there is a chance that both can be started - similar to a Jonathan Stewart/DeAngelo Williams situation, but because they actually serve as handcuffs. With Revis back on board, the running back that would be left over if either missed time would seem set to get a boat load of carries and have a giant basket of fantasy fruit to dole out.
In the Mantasy League, M.J. Jew and District 9 will be following the Hard Knocks Trap closely. Our boy Chandler might really be onto something here.
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