Antowain Smith and Sleep Fear

Things that I fear when I'm in bed going to sleep:

People at work see through my attempts to act like an adult.
I say racist things when I fall asleep on public transit.
I'm going to fart and accidentally Dutch Oven my girlfriend.
I will have to live through another season of making the Antowain Smith mistake.

Seriously, fuck Antowain Smith. Normally, I would blame what took place during the 2002 season on Bill Belichick, but this must have been the player's fault. In 2001, Smith had 287 carries for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns. He added another receiving score and nearly 200 more yards, for an undeniably productive fantasy season. Going into the 2002 Mantasy League draft there was little that I didn't like about the guy and even less that I didn't like about the Patriots. Keep in mind that this was before New England became a running back-irrelevant fantasy town, so this was more of a case of my learning the hard way while everyone else watched and took notes.

Fuck You.

The scars are thick and plenty. I took Antowain Smith in the second round and he went on to 982 yards and 6 scores. To put this in perspective, here is a list of the 2009 1,000 rushers:

Chris Johnson                    Jonathan Stewart
Steven Jackson                  Ricky Williams
Thomas Jones                    Frank Gore
Maurice Jones-Drew         Jamaal Charles
Adrian Peterson                 DeAngelo Williams
Ray Rice                            Rashard Mendenhall
Ryan Grant                        Fred Jackson
Cedric Benson


While Smith's isn't a terrible season, just under a 1,000 yards and 6 scores (note: he had 2 additional receiving TDs for a total of 8) does not feel second round worthy over sixteen games. It is true that I should have looked at the yards per carry (4.0 in 2001), or at his history of yards per carry, but I didn't - I was figuring this fantasy thing out bit by bit.


But I am not simply discussing Antowain Smith to bother myself or somehow claim that I have come so far since making this amateur error. I have more productive motivations here that I intend to get to.......now. Think of them as little dime bags of information that you can smoke on in order to get you knowledge-high percolating for the upcoming season. This buzz that I'm about to give you will either make you feel better, worse, or you'll totally bottom out and have a panic attack and swear to never do this dirty shit ever again. But you'll be back. Okay, I'm really going to expose my more productive motivations......now......for real.


In 1997, Antowain Smith was a rosy cheeked rookie for the Buffalo Bills. Fresh out of Houston, he came to the NFL and dropped 840 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. At 4.3 yards per carry, Smith was a very serviceable option as a rookie running back. That same year, Corey Dillon had another strong rookie campaign with 1,129 yards and 10 rushing TDs. And we are not even getting after the real rookie rushing achievements. Relatively recently, two big name rookies blew the lid off the fantasy world: Edgerrin James in 1999 and Clinton Portis in 2002. 


Check these stats out:


James - 1,553 rushing yds., 13 TDs, 586 receving yds., 4 TDs
Portis - 1,508 rushing yds., 15 TDs, 364 receiving yds., 2 TDs

Flash forward to now and let's take a look at the current crop and which rookies might have a chance of making even a remotely similar impact. By now the names are fairly obvious and the arguments have been made, but I'm all about this league and our value. It is more important that what Nate Ravitz says with producers and fellow analysts breathing all over him. And then there's Brandon Funston, but we can talk about him another time.

I'm sure Brandon Funston's kids give a shit what he says,
but he is no part of our Mantasy.

It is impossible to go through every back up rookie running back and imagine that the depth chart clears and they suddenly become featured, so let's look at the top three; the three that owners spent big on this year. I'm talking about Mathews, Spiller, and Best, and more specifically, how they fit in to our Mantasy.

Jahvid Best - Taken 55th overall, in the 6th round, by Debbie Does Dallas Clark

Jahvid Best

    After reviewing my picks and doing research, I began to desire Jahvid Best. If you read my earlier post on Reach Arounds, you know that I would have had no problem taking Best early to ensure that I get him. Despite other websites' ADPs, which said that 60/61 could land me my mark, I figured that early spot would have to be 40/41. Should the QBs I wanted there - Romo or Schaub - have been gone, I knew my plan was to go Best and Spiller and hope that one of them took the league roughly and from behind, as I had envisioned. With Romo available I had to decide between the two rookies. To this date, I fear the worst, but there is one major factor that all but ensures Pete has won the comparison - Spiller is a big reach around at 41, but Best feels just right at 55. I took Spiller over Jonathan Stewart, Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, and Arian Foster. Pete took Best over Brandon Jacobs and Felix 'The Cat' Jones. Yet people who watch football a hair more than casually and track the draft in a pedestrian - not obsessive way - likely knew who C.J. Spiller was, or at least that he was the top running back prospect.
     So, who is Jahvid Best? Better yet, how does he fit into my Mantasy.
     Best was taken by the Detroit Lions with the 30th overall pick and paired him with Ndamukong Suh, their other first round pick. In a scouting report, Best is actually very similar to Spiller and is a great pass catcher who contributes all over the field, including putting in time on special teams. I doubt that the Lions have it in their plans to use him in the return game, seeing as Best has a history of injuries. Apparently he had been bothered by various ailments leading up to his final year at Cal, but it is the two concussions that are a real concern. The ever-growing spotlight on head trauma in the NFL would make another such incident a real challenge for the League. Just take a look at this fall, during which he hurt his back and was left concussed: Best goes up, down, and out. (Once I figure out how to easily put videos in these posts, I'll be having a champagne party and you are all invited.) Honestly, that clip is upsetting enough that I hope we are all rooting for Best to avoid head injuries and stay on the field. So if that happens, what do we have?
     To answer that, let's look at the Lions. It all starts with Stafford and my guess is that he improves. With Suh, things should get better defensively, but even if they don't improve much, Stafford's continued growth is vital to Best, who is capable of big receiving numbers if his QB isn't on his back or plain terrible. Best has looked strong in the pre-season and signs point to his getting a large share of the carries. The only real obstacle is Kevin Smith, a highly prized young runner himself, who had a rough year last year that culminated in off season knee surgery. It is doubtful that Smith will, at least initially, make any dent in Best's workload, but it might become an issue around the goal line at some point. Still, Best could easily snatch this job entirely and put up big numbers should the Lions have anything going for them,
     Without knowing shit about the Lions future, I would set the upside at 1200 total yards, 300 of which are receiving. This is mostly based upon my thinking that the Lions still play games from behind and I'm fearful that that the downside is that Best does not get a chance to establish any rhythm as a runner. Still, the NFL is a strange place and should the Lions make a move toward legitimacy, Best is primed to be a huge part of it, as well as a huge value for Pete.


C.J. Spiller - Taken 41st overall, in the 5th round, by The Ninth District

C.J. Spiller

     This owner once took Adrian Peterson in the 6th round and the situation appeared similarly dicey. The Viking backfield was crowded, the team was nothing special (though certainly better than the Bills) and Peterson was the top talent in the rookie running back class. How did it turn out? Swimmingly. Purple Jesus started nine games, had 1,341 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns. Is C.J. Spiller an Adrian Peterson imitator? Uh, no. Spiller was, however, the 9th overall pick in the draft and is the most explosive of this trio. He had 31 special teams touches at Clemson and 5 ended up as scores. He can catch, make people miss with patience and moves, and he's smart. A fun fact is that he had 52 touchdowns in college and 21 of those were of 50 or more yards.
     So is it too much to expect Spiller to score 10 total touchdowns? It might be. On the other hand, he should accumulate a ton of touches all over the field and certainly as a receiver. The Bills are reportedly working in some wildcat formations with Spiller at the helm, so to predict upside perhaps we should look at an early Ronnie Brown-type year - a few TDs and 1100 total yards. It is tough to say. The downside would have to be injury-related because the opportunity will be there, particularly early on in the season, though maybe the situation in Buffalo is simply too crowded or not sturdy enough line-wise, leading to a season that is somewhere in the middle of the high and the low with some fun highlights sprinkled in along the way. Still, the talent is there, so if he uses the brain that made him an Academic All-American, he will transition smoothly, take the touches he gets initially and force Chan Gailey to sew his asshole shut and keep feeding him, and feeding him, and feeding him. Either way, here's to my new pet, The Ghost Face Spiller.


Ryan Mathews - Taken 14th overall, in the 2nd round, by Ray Rice Penis

Ryan Mathews

     Out of Fresno State, Mathews was taken higher than expected in the NFL draft, going 12th overall. He has never had a full season due to health and this is particularly relevant because the Chargers gave strong picks to move to 12 and Norv Turner loves him some running back. Big Norv has been unabashed in his preseason comments, stating that Mathews will touch the ball 250 to 300 times, which all but ensures fantasy value. If he stays healthy, he is a big boy and should control the goal line. He is a good inside runner and it is one amateur's opinion that his upside is more Michael Turner, than it is a certain other Chargers back who once received all of the touches in San Diego. Of course, Turner is just under thirty pounds heavier than Mathews, so there are major differences, but their college stats look similar. In addition, the Chargers still have Darren Sproles and third down is likely to still be his, as he has shown immense ability in the pass attack.
     Nonetheless, of the three rookies profiled here, Mathews is part of the best offense, seems safest to carry the ball most often, and should be in a great position to get those ever-valuable touchdowns that win weeks. Let's assume he puts up 1,000 yards, which isn't so aggressive if he stays healthy and Norv Turner follows through on giving him the rock; if he can score 10 touchdowns, picking him 14th overall will make sense. The problem is that a 14th overall pick demands that this be the basement. While Mathews is certainly the safest of the group, Fuller must also hope that he outperforms Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams, Cedric Benson, and Jamaal Charles. On the flip side, the 14th pick is an incredibly difficult place to get a running back, especially with Ryan Grant going 13th. Fuller went for the mystery box, and although he could have had a couple of boats in Williams, Benson, and those other backs, the mystery box could be anything, even a boat like Williams, Benson, and those other backs. Peter Griffin and I both love the upside pick and this is about the safest gamble that can be made with a mid-second round pick...if there is such a thing as a safe gamble.


The Mantasy Scope:

After all of that, how do I rank them as they fit into our collective Mantasy? Put another way, who did the best?

Well, I think Best is the best value and so I think at 55, Pete is looking good to reap the rewards of a rookie talent. Yes, the Lions are dodgy, but so are the Bills, and so I have a hard time putting Spiller ahead of a guy who looks virtually unchallenged for opportunities. Even if he is not Edgerrin James of 1999, Pete has Gore, Charles, and time to figure out an alternative should the shit hit the fan.

Mathews is the second best value, despite his high pick at 14th overall. The workload and offense seem so stable that it is hard to imagine that he does not pay off at all. Save for a mystery third back coming in to vulture short yardage touchdowns, Mathews has looked strong and will produce at a high level.

Finally, my boy Ghost Face. Being third here does not mean that he will be bad, but his situation is the most unknown. It is tough to say that ten carries and a couple of receptions would be enough, especially in the Bills offense, to warrant even flex consideration. The fear is that he looks like Felix Jones last year and is simply too unpredictable with the big plays to get regular burn. To put him higher on the list would be to ignore the unknowns and find greater flaws with the other two. This I cannot do.

Te bottom line is that this will be a fun rookie running back class and, as always, it will be fun to check in on these three throughout the season.